Are Technical Analysts the Best Options Traders?
Dear Options Experts:
Do you feel technical analysis and option straddles are a perfect complement to one another given the ability of a savvy technician to spot upside/downside targets effectively via charts? What proportion of successful options traders do not rely heavily on technical analysis?
For example, this chart of $RIMM http://chart.ly/ywv7g2v seems like a ‘good bet’ to touch $33.60 on bullish earnings, and sag to $27.56 – $26.12 on bearish earnings.
It is exactly the topic of Greg Harmons’ (@harmongreg ) post regarding Research in Motion, suggesting a straddle to play RIM earnings http://stks.co/Efa where following a thorough multi-time frame analysis of RIM, Greg concludes:
Sell September 34 Strike Call and Buy September 26 Strike Put for 21c debit.
This gives upside protection for a 16% move. It should also allow a profitable exit on the downside as long as the stock stays under 30, and much more if it falls the full 12.5% or more priced in options. If the stock gaps higher over 34 on earnings you should buy stock to hedge the short call until the morning. If it plays out as the charts suggest let the short call expire and sell the put on any stall that might happen at support at the 27.50 area.
How can one learn the art of positioning around these levels in a similar fashion to a pro? When the levels are ‘obvious’ such as this, how can one gain an edge when all the pros see the same levels?